Schedule Risk Analysis With Acumen: Different Calendars

Share
Tweet
Share
Schedule Risk Analysis by MLR

This article provides an overview on how varying inputs and parameters affect the date outputs, in particular, the P0, P50, and P100 dates, in the Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) with software Deltek Acumen Fuse.  By understanding how Acumen behaves with respect to varying conditions, schedulers, risk managers, and key stakeholders alike will be guided on providing only realistic input values for the SRA.

In this analysis, the effects of activity calendars in the SRA outputs are investigated.  Activities are assigned with different calendars while holding all other parameters constant.  A simple schedule was developed using Primavera P6 for a straightforward understanding of the relationship between the inputs and the SRA results generated from Acumen.

The output shows that the duration as inputs in the risk register represents working days and NOT calendar days.  Furthermore, Acumen takes into account the activity calendars in determining the probabilistic completion dates of the activities.

See also:

Variable

  • Activity Calendars (Case 04).

Input

  • Risk assigned to a project with different activity calendars.
  • 1 risk mapped to a single activity.
  • 1,000 iterations set in Deltek Acumen Fuse.
  • All other parameters are set to be the same in each case/project shown in Figure 1 below.
Primavera Schedule for Risk Analysis
Figure 1. Primavera Schedule with Different Activity Calendars.

Table 1.  Risk Input for Different Activity Calendars.

Schedule Risk Analysis Risk Register

Output

Risk Exposure Histogram by Deltek Acumen Fuse
Figure 2. Risk Exposure Histogram Generated from Acumen (see tabulated values in Table 2).
Risk Drivers by Deltek Acumen Fuse
Figure 3. Risk Drivers Generated from Acumen (see tabulated values in Table 2).

Analysis

Tabulation of the results of Figures 2 and 3 are shown in Table 2 along with calculations for analysis.

Table 2.  Results and Calculations.

Schedule Risk Analysis

Though C04A and C04B have the same parameters in the risk input, the difference in the calendar used affected the worst case scenario (P100) date with the former finishing later (23-Sep-20) than the later (14-Aug-20).  C04A has a 5-day workweek calendar while C04B is working on a 7-day workweek schedule.

Due to a year of non-working period between 01-Jun-20 to 31-May-21, this affected the P100 of C04C to complete on 23-Sep-21. Compared to C04A, this is also a year late with both cases using the 5-day workweek calendar with the difference on the 1-year non-working period for C04C.

C04D and C04E use the same calendars with work period on 1 & 2-Aug-19, 1 & 2-Oct-19, 1 & 2-Dec-19 and from 1-Aug-20. During the non-working days, no hits were accounted in the risk exposure diagram.

Takeaways

  1. The duration in the risk register represents workdays and NOT calendar days.
  2. Acumen takes into account the workdays or the activity calendars when determining the probabilistic completion dates (P-dates) of an activity.
Share
Tweet
Share

OTHER RECENT BLOGS

Mitigation vs acceleration in construction scheduling, illustrating how recovery terminology affects delay analysis, cost and contractual entitlement.

Mitigation vs Acceleration: The Scheduling Terms That Shape Delay Analysis and Contractual Entitlement

Understand the critical difference between mitigation and acceleration in construction scheduling and why terminology can affect delay analysis, recovery programmes, cost responsibility, and contractual entitlement. This article explains how mitigation typically involves reasonable steps to reduce delay impacts, while acceleration may require additional labour, overtime, equipment, or shifts to recover time. It also explores how planners, contract managers, and project controls professionals should frame Primavera P6 updates, schedule narratives, and client instructions to protect entitlement and support defensible delay claims.

Read More »
Marty Fuentes July 16, 2026
Interactive project planning and controls dashboard using Power BI and Primavera P6 for construction schedule tracking, earned value analysis, Gantt charts, and project performance monitoring.

The Ultimate Project Planning and Controls Dashboard Using Power BI and Primavera P6

Explore a fully interactive Project Planning and Controls Dashboard built using Power BI and Primavera P6. This article demonstrates how modern construction project controls can integrate earned value management, schedule performance tracking, Gantt chart visualization, progress photos, historical schedule submissions, and Window Analysis-based delay analysis into one centralized digital reporting environment. Discover how dynamic dashboards improve project visibility, stakeholder communication, forensic schedule analysis, and decision-making while simplifying monthly reporting workflows for complex construction and infrastructure projects.

Read More »
Marty Fuentes May 17, 2026

Build Better Projects With Expert Guidance

MLR Subscription - Browsing

Where to send the file?